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In government and health care, predictive models enable professionals to serve the public more economically and effectively. For example, save paper by setting the office printer to the default of double-sided printing. Because people tend to ignore letters written in bureaucratese and fail to complete buggy computer forms, simplify the language and user interface. Doing so does not restrict choices; rather, options are arranged and presented in ways that help people make day-to-day choices that are consistent with their long-term goals. The story of a recent political campaign illustrates the idea.

The strategy was judicious: One might naively design a model to simply identify likely Obama voters. But doing so would waste resources and potentially annoy many supporters already intending to vote for Obama. At the opposite extreme, directing voters to the doors of hard-core Romney supporters would be counterproductive. The smart strategy was to identify those voters most likely to change their behavior if visited by a campaign worker. A predictive model can weigh more factors—and do so more consistently, accurately, and economically—than the unaided judgment of overstretched campaign workers.

But the story does not end here. The Obama campaign was distinctive in combining the use of predictive analytics with outreach tactics motivated by behavioral science. This tactic was motivated by psychological research indicating that people are more likely to follow through on actions that they have committed to.

Second, volunteers would also ask people to articulate a specific plan to vote, even down to the specific time of day they would go to the polls. This tactic reflected psychological research suggesting that forming even a simple plan increases the likelihood that people will follow through. Regardless of application, the implementation must be successful in two distinct senses: First, the model must be converted into a functioning piece of software that gathers and combines data elements and produces a useful prediction or indication with suitably short turnaround time.

In many cases, determining the appropriate action is, at least in principle, relatively straightforward. For example, if an analysis singles out a highly talented yet underpaid baseball player, scout him. If an actuarial model indicates that a policyholder is a risky driver, set his or her rates accordingly. If an emergency room triage model indicates a high risk of heart attack, send the patient to intensive care. But in many other situations, exemplified by the challenge of getting out the vote, a predictive model can at best point the end user in the right direction. It cannot suggest how to prompt the desired behavior change.

When the ultimate goal is behavior change, predictive analytics and the science of behavioral nudges can serve as two parts of a greater, more effective whole. Once one starts thinking along these lines, other promising applications come to mind in a variety of domains, including public sector services, behavioral health, insurance, risk management, and fraud detection.

Several US states either have implemented or intend to implement predictive models designed to help child support enforcement officers identify noncustodial parents at risk of falling behind on their child support payments. The application is considered a success, but perhaps more could be done to achieve the ultimate goal of ensuring timely child support payments.

In addition, behavioral nudge principles could be used to design financial coaching efforts. Taking the logic a step further, the model could also be used to identify more moderate risks, perhaps not in immediate need of live visits, who might benefit from outreach letters. Various nudge tactics could be used in the design of such letters. Evidence from behavioral nudge field experiments in other applications even suggests that printing such letters on colored paper increases the likelihood that they will be read and acted upon.

There is no way of knowing in advance which if any combination of tactics would prove effective. Nudge tactics could help the case worker most effectively prompt the desired behavior change. Similar ideas can motivate next-generation statistical fraud detection efforts. Fraud detection is among the most difficult data analytics applications because among other reasons it is often the case that not all instances of fraud have been flagged as such in historical databases. Furthermore, fraud itself can be an inherently ambiguous concept. For example, much automobile insurance fraud takes the form of opportunistic embellishment or exaggeration rather than premeditated schemes.

Acting upon a fraud suspicion score can therefore be a subtler task than acting on, for example, child welfare or safety inspection predictive model indications. Judiciously worded letters could be crafted to achieve a variety of fraud mitigation effects. Such an approach is consistent with two well-established psychological facts: People are averse to loss, and they tend to exaggerate small probabilities, particularly when the size of the associated gain or loss is large and comes easily to mind.

For example, social norms exert material influences on our behaviors: People tend to use less energy and fewer hotel towels when informed that people like them tend to conserve. Physician report cards have been found to promote patient safety because they prompt physicians to compare their professional conduct to that of their peers and trigger such internal, noneconomic rewards as professional pride and the pleasure of helping others.

Keeping health care utilization under control is a major goal of both predictive analytics and behavioral economics. Once again, behavioral economics is the natural framework to scientifically attack the last-mile problem of going from predictive model indication to the desired action. In contrast with the building inspection and fraud detection examples, it is unlikely that purely economic incentives are sufficient to change the behavior of the very worst risks.

In this context, the worst risks are those with multiple chronic diseases. Such coaches are selected based more on attitudes and cultural affinities with the patient than on medical training. Indeed, this suggests a further data science application: Use the sort of analytical approaches employed by online matchmaking services to hire and match would-be health coaches to patients based on personality and cultural characteristics.

Gawande recounts the story of a diabetic, obese woman who had suffered three heart attacks. After working with a health coach, she managed to leave her wheelchair and began attending yoga classes. Closely analogous ideas can be pursued in such arenas as financial health and back-to-work programs. The health check was a one-hour coaching session designed to address such behavioral bottlenecks as forgetfulness, burdensome paperwork, lack of self-control, and letting short-term pleasures trump long-term goals.

As with the child support case study, this would enable prevention as well as remediation. But behavioral science is needed to identify the most effective ways to provide the coaching. The discussion so far has focused on behavioral nudge tactics as a way of bridging the gap between predictive model indications and the appropriate actions. Behavioral economics supplies some of the design thinking needed for such innovations. The following examples illustrate this idea.

Viewed through a traditional lens, the telematics black-box devices increasingly used by insurance companies are the ultimate actuarial segmentation machine. They can capture fine-grained details about how much or abruptly we drive, accelerate, change lanes, turn corners, and so on. But in our digitally mediated world of big data, it is possible to consider new business models and product offerings. Such reports could help risky drivers better understand and hopefully improve their behavior, help beginner drivers learn and improve, and help older drivers safely remain behind the wheel longer.

It is worth noting that employing nudge tactics does not preclude using classical economic incentives to promote safer driving. For example, the UK insurer ingenie uses black-box data to calculate risk scores, which in turn are reported via mobile apps back to drivers so that they can better understand and improve their driving behavior.

Self-tracking devices are the health and wellness equivalent of telematics black boxes. Perhaps we can take the behavioral design thinking a step further. Behavioral economics offers a somewhat less dramatic device: the commitment contract. Commitment contracts digitally implemented on mobile app devices offer an intriguing application for self-tracking devices that goes beyond real-time monitoring or feedback reports.

Data from such devices could automatically flow into apps preprogramed with commitment contracts that reflect diet, exercise, or savings goals. But Wilde wrote long before behavioral economics. I yield to the temptation to give one final example of data-fueled, digitally implemented, and behaviorally designed innovation. A striking finding of evidence-based medicine is that nearly , people die each year in the United States alone from preventable hospital infections. A large number of lives could therefore be saved by prompting health care workers to wash their hands for the prescribed length of time.

The DebMed Group Monitoring System is an electronic soap dispenser equipped with a computer chip that records how often the members of different hospital wards wash their hands. Administered with the appropriate behavioral design thinking, an ounce of data can be worth a pound of cure. On the other hand, behavioral nudge applications are often one-size-fits-all affairs applied to entire populations rather than analytically identified sub-segments. It is reasonable to anticipate better results when the two approaches are treated as complementary and applied in tandem. Such data are controversial for reasons not limited to a basic concern for privacy.

Behavioral data generated in one context can be repurposed for use in other contexts to infer preferences, attitudes, and psychological traits with accuracy that many find unsettling at best, Orwellian at worst. These concerns are crucial and not to be swept under the carpet. At the same time, it is possible to view both behavioral data and behavioral nudge science as tools that can be used in either socially useful or socially useless ways. Reward system design and group creativity: An experimental investigation. Chen, H. Ham and N. Designing multiperson tournaments with asymmetric contestants: An experimental study.

Chen, N. Chiu and T. Do analysts matter for corporate tax planning? Evidence from a natural experiment. Contemporary Accounting Research 35 2 : Chen, Q. Kelly and S. Do changes in audit actions and attitudes consistent with increased auditor scepticism deter aggressive earnings management? An experimental investigation. Accounting, Organizations and Society 37 2 : Chen, T. Zhang and Y. Enforceability of non-compete covenants, discretionary investments, and financial reporting practices: Evidence from a natural experiment.

Journal of Accounting and Economics February : Chen-Ritzo, C. Harrison, A. Kwasnica and D. Better, faster, cheaper: An experimental analysis of a multiattribute reverse auction mechanism with restricted information feedback. Chesney, T. Chuah and R. Virtual world experimentation: An exploratory study.

Chong, V. The effect of trust-in-superior and truthfulness on budgetary slack: An experimental investigation. Advances in Management Accounting 19 : Chow, C. Cooper and K. The effects of pay schemes and ratchets on budgetary slack and performance: A multiperiod experiment. Accounting, Organizations and Society 16 1 : Haddad and M. An experimental market's investigation of discretionary financial disclosure. Abacus 32 2 : Shields and Y. K Chan. The effects of management controls and national culture on manufacturing performance: An experimental investigation. Accounting, Organizations and Society 16 3 : Hirst and M.

The effects of pay schemes and probabilistic management audits on subordinate misrepresentation of private information: An experimental investigation in a resource allocation context. Behavioral Research In Accounting 7 : Hwang and W. Motivating truthful upward communication of private information: An experimental study of mechanisms from theory and practice. Christ, M. An experimental investigation of the interactions among intentions, reciprocity, and control. Journal of Management Accounting Research 25 : Chui, L.

Martin and B. A quasi-experimental assessment of interactive student response systems on student confidence, effort, and course performance. Journal of Accounting Education 31 1 : Church, B. Nagao, and K. Continued support for poorly performing capital projects: A multi-period experimental study. Advances in Management Accounting 8 : Jenkins, S. McCracken, P. Roush and J. Auditor independence in fact: Research, regulatory, and practice implications drawn from experimental and archival research.

Accounting Horizons March : Peytcheva, W. Yu and O. Perspective taking in auditor-manager interactions: An experimental investigation of auditor behavior. Accounting, Organizations and Society 45 : Libby and P. Contracting frame and individual behavior: Experimental evidence. Journal of Management Accounting Research 20 : Clark, C. Accounting anxiety: An experiment to determine the effects of an intervention on anxiety levels and achievement of introductory accounting students.

Journal of Accounting Education 7 2 : Clark, N. Accounting for experimental and developmental costs. Bulletin February 1 : Clements, C. Reporting financial results with the video medium: An experimental analysis. Clinton, B. Kohlmeyer III. The effects of group quizzes on performance and motivation to learn: Two experiments in cooperative learning. Journal of Accounting Education 23 2 : Coats, J. The delegation of decision rights: An experimental investigation.


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Advances in Management Accounting 27 : Cohen, A. Robinson and J. Experiments in organizational embeddedness. Administrative Science Quarterly 14 2 : Coller, M. Information, noise, and asset prices: An experimental study. Review of Accounting Studies 1 1 : Collins, J.

An assessment of the construct validity of three job evaluation methods: A field experiment. The Academy of Management Journal 36 4 : Conlon, E. Effects of monitoring and tradition on compensation arrangements: An experiment with principal-agent dyads. The Academy of Management Journal 33 3 : Cook, T. Boston: Houghton Mifflin. Cooper, H. Depreciation on current values is half as much again - An experimental determination. Bulletin June : Cooper, J. Coram, P. Monroe and D. The value of assurance on voluntary nonfinancial disclosure: An experimental evaluation.

Corless, J. The impact of MAS on auditor independence: An experiment. Accounting Horizons September : Cosier, R. Research on conflict-handling behavior: An experimental approach. The Academy of Management Journal 24 4 : Craig, R. Accounting history and governmental inquiries: An experiment in adversarial roleplay. The Accounting Historians Journal 21 2 : Cushing, B. Contemporary Accounting Research 7 1 : Cyert, R.

March and W. Two experiments on bias and conflict in organizational estimation. Daigle, R. Pinsker and T. The impact of order effects on nonprofessional investors' belief revision when presented a long series of disclosures in an experimental market setting. Accounting Horizons June : Dalkey, N. An experimental application of the Delphi method to the use of experts. Danos, P. Holt and E. Imhoff, Jr. Bond raters' use of management financial forecasts: Experiment in expert judgment. Das, H. Organizational and decision characteristics and personality as determinants of control actions: A laboratory experiment.

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Dikolli, S. Evans III, J.

The last-mile problem: How data science and behavioral science can work together

Hales, M. Matejka, D. Moser, et al. Testing analytical models using archival or experimental methods. Ding, M. Eliashberg, J. Huber and R. Emotional bidders: An analytical and experimental examination of consumers' behavior in a priceline-like reverse auction.

Management Science March : Dixon, R. An experimental interview program to attract students to our field. Dopuch, N. Discussion of "Incentive compensation schemes: Experimental calibration of the rationality hypothesis". Contemporary Accounting Research 8 2 : The effects of alternative inventory valuation methods - An experimental study. Note: This paper is about cost flow assumptions, not inventory valuation methods. The impact of MAS on auditors' independence: An experimental markets study.

Negligence versus strict liability regimes in auditing: An experimental investigation. Ingberman and R. Journal of Accounting and Economics July : King and J. An experimental investigation of alternative damage-sharing liability regimes with an auditing perspective. King and R. An experimental investigation of retention and rotation requirements. Journal of Accounting Research June : Douthit, J. Kearney and D. Can agent cheap talk mitigate agency problems in the presence of a noisy performance measure? An experimental test in a single- and multi- period setting. Journal of Management Accounting Research 24 : Du, H.

Lehmann and V. Technology-facilitated contribution behavior: An experimental investigation. Behavioral Research In Accounting 26 2 : Dvir, T. Eden, B. Avolio and B. Impact of transformational leadership on follower development and performance: A field experiment. The Academy of Management Journal 45 4 : Dyckman, T. Observations on Jensen's experimental design for study of effects of accounting variations in decision making. Empirical utility functions and random devices: An experiment. Decision Sciences 3 2 : Earley, C.

Hoffman and J. Reducing management's influence on auditors' judgments: An experimental investigation of SOX assessments. Edmonds, T. On the benefits of cumulative exams: An experimental study. Elias, N. The effects of human asset statements on the investment decision: An experiment. The effects of financial information symmetry on conflict resolution: An experiment in the context of labor negotiations. Part of a forum on negotiation research in accounting.

Evan, W. Organizational effects of inequitable rewards: Two experiments in status inconsistency.


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    Emerald: Title Detail: Advances in Accounting Behavioral Research by Khondkar E. Karim

    Real time classroom tax planning using experimental markets. Gaa, C. Gabbin, A. An experimental study of accounting majors' academic achievement using cooperative learning groups.

    Gamble, G. An experiment in costing university instruction. Bulletin August : Gamling, A. O'Donnell and S. An experimental examination of factors that influence auditor assessments of deficiency in internal control over financial reporting. Ganguly, A. Covariation assessments with costly information collection in audit planning: An experimental study. Gardiner, G. Cognitive and motivational development in two experimental undergraduate programs in business. The Academy of Management Journal 17 2 : Gebhardt, G. Ghosh, D. Intra-firm pricing: Experimental evaluation of alternative mechanisms.

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    Behavioral Research In Accounting 8 Supplement : Gibbins, M. Discussion of "An experimental study of the effects of elicitation methods on review of preliminary audit strategy by external auditors". Gippel, J. Smith and Y. Endogeneity in accounting and finance research: Natural experiments as a state-of-the-art solution. Abacus 51 2 : Goldman, M. Stockbauer and T. Intergroup and intragroup competition and cooperation. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 13 : Gormley, T. Matsa and T. CEO compensation and corporate risk: Evidence from a natural experiment.

    Graham, C. The environment of reality: An experiment in education for business. Greenberg, P. Journal of Accounting Education 15 4 : Griffin, R. Objective and social sources of information in task redesign: A field experiment. Administrative Science Quarterly 28 2 : Groomer, S. An experiment in computer-assisted instruction for introductory accounting.

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    Contemporary Accounting Research 34 1 : Hales, J. Kuang and S. Who believes the hype? An experimental examination of how language affects investor judgments. Journal of Accounting Research March : Hand, H. Slocum, Jr. Human relations training for middle management: A field experiment. The Academy of Management Journal 13 4 : Hannan, R. Towry and Y. Turning up the volume: An experimental investigation of the role of mutual monitoring in tournaments.

    Contemporary Accounting Research 30 4 : Harbring, C. Sabotage in tournaments: Evidence from a laboratory experiment. Harsha, P. The use of within-and between-subjects experimental designs in behavioral accounting research: A methodological note. Behavioral Research In Accounting 2 : Hay, R. Social auditing: An experimental approach. The Academy of Management Journal 18 4 : Heiman-Hoffman, V. An experimental investigation of deferred tax asset judgments under SFAS Helleloid, R.

    Providing answers to self-study questions: An experimental investigation of possible effects. Herbohn, K. A full cost environmental accounting experiment. Accounting, Organizations, and Society 30 6 : Hicks, W. Entry into training programs and its effects on training outcomes: A field experiment. The Academy of Management Journal 30 3 : Hite, P. An experimental study of the effectiveness of group exams in an individual income tax class. Hobson, J. Strategic disclosure of risky prospects: A laboratory experiment. Mellon and D. Determinants of moral judgments regarding budgetary slack: An experimental examination of pay scheme and personal values.

    Behavioral Research In Accounting 23 1 : Hofstedt, T. An experimental study of the judgment element in disclosure decisions. Hogarth, R.

    Advances Accounting Behavioral Research by Donna Bobek Schmitt

    Hoggatt, A. Esherick and J. A laboratory to facilitate computer-controlled behavioral experiments. Hoogendoorn, M. An Experiment in "Fair Value" Accounting? Hopkins, M. Value creation, experiments and why IT does matter. Hosasian, T. Minor and J. Competing matchmakers: An experimental analysis.

    Management Science November : House, R. An experiment in the use of management training standards. The Journal of the Academy of Management 5 1 : An experimental evaluation of a management training program. The Academy of Management Journal 6 4 : Huddart, S. Discussion of "The effects of vertical pay dispersion: Experimental evidence in a budget setting".

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    The Academy of Management Journal 25 2 : Iyer, G. Reckers and D. A field experiment to explore the effects of detection and penalties communications and framing among Washington State retail firms. Jatiningsih, D. Examining the interaction effect of cost information types and strategy on the effectiveness of new product development: An experimental study. Jensen, R. An experimental design for study of effects of accounting variations in decision making. Jermias, J.

    The influence of accountability on overconfidence and resistance to change: A research framework and experimental evidence. Management Accounting Research December : Johnson, E. An accounting procedure for expenditures on experimental projects. Bulletin July 1 : Jones, G. An experimental examination of the effects of individual situational factors on unethical behavioral intentions in the workplace.

    Journal of Business Ethics 15 5 : Jones, L. An analysis of behavior and performance in the food retailing industry using experimental business gaming. Decision Sciences 6 3 : Jordan, P. Effects of an extrinsic reward on intrinsic motivation: A field experiment. Errata: Effects of an extrinsic reward on intrinsic motivation: A field experiment. The Academy of Management Journal 30 2 : Joyce, W. Matrix organization: A social experiment. The Academy of Management Journal 29 3 : Jucker, J.

    Policy-comparing simulation experiments: Design and analysis. Decision Sciences 6 4 : Kachelmeier, S. Discussion of an experimental investigation of alternative damage-sharing liability regimes with an auditing perspective. Internal auditing and voluntary cooperation in firms: A cross-cultural experiment. Using laboratory experiments to evaluate accounting policy issues. Smith and W. Budgets as a credible threat: An experimental study of cheap talk and forward induction.

    Kalkanci, B. Chen and F. Contract complexity and performance under asymmetric demand information: An experimental evaluation. Karan, V. Kerr, U. Murthy and A. Information technology support for collaborative decision making in auditing: An experimental investigation. Decision Support Systems 16 3 : Katok, E.

    Why genius leads to adversity: Experimental evidence on the reputational effects of task difficulty choices. Management Science June : Kelly, K. Journal of Management Accounting Research 28 1 : Kennedy, J. Debiasing audit judgment with accountability: A framework and experimental results. Kerr, D. Auditor consideration of tone-at-the-top in audit planning: An experimental investigation.

    Group decision support systems and cooperative learning in auditing: An experimental investigation. Kim, J. Effects of flexitime on employee attendance and performance: A field experiment. King, R. Reputation formation for reliable reporting: An experimental investigation. An experimental investigation of self-serving biases in an auditing trust game: The effect of group affiliation.

    Market-induced information disclosures: An experimental markets investigation. Contemporary Accounting Research 8 1 : Experimental tests of disclosure with an opponent. Managerial incentives for disclosure timing: An experimental investigation. Journal of Management Accounting Research 8 : An experimental investigation of auditors' liability: Implications for social welfare and exploration of deviations from theoretical predictions.

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    Gogus and M. Decision making and the price setting newsvendor: Experimental evidence. Decision Sciences 47 1 : Koch, B. Income smoothing: An experiment. Kohavi, R. Kokkila, L. Werbaneth, Jr. The public practice of accounting: An experimental program. Kovar, S. Discussion of An experimental examination of alternative forms of web assurance for business-to-consumer e-commerce.

    Journal of Information Systems Spring Supplement : Kowalczyk, T. Rafai and A. An experimental investigation of strategic budgeting: A technique for integrating information symmetry. Advances in Management Accounting 15 : Anchoring effects associated with recommendations from expert decision aids: An experimental analysis. Behavioral Research In Accounting 10 Supplement : Krackhardt, D.

    McKenna, L. Porter and R.